Thus far this year, Redfin, RE/MAX and Zillow have reported their fourth quarter and full year 2022 results. One of the surprises was that both Zillow and Redfin saw top-line revenues decline for the full year 2022 while RE/MAX grew their revenues.
For the full year, Zillow reported a loss of $88 million, Redfin reported a full year loss of $320 million. RE/MAX, on the other, had net income of $4.8 million.
So the incumbent organization, RE/MAX, had better results than either of the previously fast growth, tech-driven, young companies — RE/MAX celebrating 50 years this year, Zillow and Redfin closer to their 18th birthdays.
Some may see RE/MAX as the turtle of the turtle and hare story — slow but steady growth — as opposed to those espousing top-line growth at all costs as an inferior strategy. But 2022 showed that there is nothing inferior about “slow and steady.”
What do housing consumers want?
Looking at Redfin results, it appears that their web-driven, discount cost, employee-based model has not yet caught on with housing consumers. Their own data shows that their national market share remains under 1%. The firm’s gross margin in brokerage services, at 28.6% (down from 37.8% a year ago,) is not nearly as good as other lead-generating teams in the U.S., where an average medium- to large-sized team has a gross margin of 60-62%, according to 2022 RealTrends Team Profitability study.
We believe the comparison is apt, as both Redfin and teams focus on lead generation investments and the use of agents to serve housing consumers that emanate from these activities.
What Redfin does to break out of their current market share position is unknown, even to Redfin’s leadership.
Zillow’s market share strategy
Zillow’s results show that despite nearly 18 years of investing in unique online tools for consumers and agents alike, their main revenue source remains advertising spend from agents and brokerage firms.
Clearly, they think they can increase the market share of brokerage commission revenues with their focus on what they call their five pillars – touring, financing, seller solutions, enhancing their partner networks and integrating our services.
To what extent they can capture more of the commission revenues generated by the purchase and sale of homes by real estate agents is unknown.
What is known is that their model is based on commissions generated by closings, and as their results show, their results rise and fall on the health of the brokerage business.
The RE/MAX challenge
RE/MAX’s biggest challenge remains the recruitment and retention of real estate agents. While they continue to grow overall, in the core market of North America, the number of agents continues to slide.
This is a challenge faced by virtually all incumbent national brands and has been the case for many years now. How do well-established branded real estate enterprises, whether they are national, regional or local, continue to grow the number of agents they have in their system and help these agents grow their productivity?
RE/MAX has shown it can grow their Motto Mortgage franchise and it is becoming more important to their overall results
There are more earnings reports yet to be released. I will review them as they appear. One thing is certain — for the first time since 2011, we will see results turning negative, often in a significant way, as the housing downturn hits all market participants.
Steve Murray is a senior advisor for RealTrends and a partner with RTC Consulting.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of RealTrends’ editorial department and its owners.
To contact the author of this story:
Steve Murray at smurray@realtrends.com
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Tracey Velt at tracey@hwmedia.com