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When will mortgage rates get over 4%?

The bond market will tell you what you need to know

HW+ mortgage rate question

In several previous articles I have opined that an increase in mortgage rates may be our only hope for slowing the escalation of home prices that we’ve been experiencing for the past year. With mortgage rates hitting above 3% last week for the first time since June, it’s a good time to revisit this conversation and what we should expect next for mortgage rates.

Since the summer of 2020, I have argued that if mortgage rates could get over 3.75%, days on market would rise and the rate of price growth would cool. This will be bullish for housing because the price gains we have been seeing are extremely unhealthy. 

A common theme in the interviews I have done in 2021 has been that this is the unhealthiest housing market since 2010 — not because we have a credit boom or a bubble forming, but because we have forced bidding on too few homes. We need the days on market to grow out of the teenager stage.

If the antidote to our housing market ills is higher mortgage rates, when can we expect getting this cure? The unfortunate answer is not anytime soon.

If you are familiar with my work, you are aware that I rely heavily on the movements of the 10-year yield to guide my mortgage rate predictions. Even though I have been extremely bullish on the U.S. economy, my bond market forecast for the 10-year yield in 2021 was that it wouldn’t go above 1.94%, with the lower end of the range being 0.62%. This translates into the upper range of mortgage rates to be 3.375%-3.625% at best, and lower end of the range to be 2.25% – 2.375%. Article continues on

This article was originally published by HousingWire. The full article is available on for HW+ Members.

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